Coronavirus Update 3: Spread, Quarantine, Projections, & Vaccine


welcome to another medcram lecture
we’re going to talk about an update for coronavirus as of 1:27 2020 we have in
China four thousand four hundred and twenty eight infected and 106 that have
died now one of those that died recently was Beijing’s first reported death and
this is a 50 year old gentleman who visited Wuhan on January 8th and
developed fever seven days later on the 15th went to the hospital on the 21st
and then died on the 27th so this kind of gives you at least an example of one
in terms of the natural history of what we’re talking about now over the past
day or so there’s been some epidemiologists in China that have
looked at this and they’re trying to parse exactly how well the containment
or the quarantine of this area is and they’ve come up with some pretty sober
results they say that optimistically if we were to able to get a 90% containment
of the area they predict based on their models that the peak infection would hit
about 59 thousand people and that would mean that would be about 1500 deaths now
if the containment was worse than that and there’s been some news about that
recently because the mayor of Wuhan said that about 5 million people went out of
the city after there was the virus and so if you look at a worst-case scenario
of only 50% containment of the area based on the models that they’ve come up
with is five million people being infected and a death rate of about
100,000 people and in terms of the publication of this I’m going to go
ahead and put the links in the description below so you’ll have the
links to all of this stuff that I’m going to talk about today so things have
kind of heated up we have Sri Lanka having its first case this is a Chinese
tourist that went to Sri Lanka and this patients being hospitalized in the
capital of Colombo we have the United States ordering a level 3 alert
saying no non-essential travel to China we have a quarantine in China of about
50 million people and one of the areas that’s really going to be of high
interest is this whole idea of whether the virus can be contracted when the
patient or the index case is asymptomatic this claim was first made
by the China’s Health Minister but there is growing concern because the United
States and their Health Department personnel have been unable to look at
the data in China because they’re not being allowed to look at that data to
see exactly how is it possible that somebody who does not have symptoms is
able to transmit the virus and so we’re not exactly able to back up that claim
as of this moment better news in the u.s. there’s been no new confirmed cases
overnight so we’ve got four or five cases we got two in California one in
Los Angeles County the other one in Orange County we have the one in
Washington State and that’s an interesting story in and of itself so in
Washington State the index case themselves is a gentleman who actually
went to the market in Wuhan and currently health investigators are
looking at about 64 different people that he might have had contact with and
they’re tracking them down and seeing whether or not they have the virus so
far the index case himself is doing fine getting back to California as we
mentioned there are cases in Orange County and also in Los Angeles County
what was just recently announced is that Ontario International Airport is going
to be the repatriation center for about 240 Americans who are going to be
repatriated back to the United States out of China and that is a chartered
flight and its first going to go to Anchorage Alaska for refueling and it’s
at that point that they’re going to have their first health check and then it
will be going on to Ontario International Airport in Southern
California where they will be as soon as they get off the plane they’re going to
be screened to make sure that they’re not sick and
to make sure that they don’t have the virus and there’s more details on that
article so that’s something that’s been in the news just recently in the last
few hours interesting news out of Canada there is a case in Toronto which I know
very well since I’m originally from Toronto the patient came from Wuhan and
is currently in a hospital there in Toronto called Sunnybrook Health Care
Sciences interestingly the husband is in hospital but the patient’s wife has also
tested positive for the corona virus however she’s at home and she’s doing
quite fine without any symptoms and I think this is an interesting
illustration of how variable the presentation can be of this virus in
different individuals and we’re assuming here that they both picked it up at the
market there in Wuhan China and hopefully that the husband did not give
it to the wife can that would be the first case of a human to human transfer
outside of China so far we have not had any evidence at least in the United
States or in fact anywhere else in the world
other than China where there has been a human to human transmission of this
virus so that’s good news okay let’s talk about vaccines here Johnson &
Johnson is getting into the fray and trying to come up with a vaccine for
this virus they’re saying that it’s going to take anywhere between 8 to 12
months before human testing can take place the NIH on the other hand is
saying that they may have something ready in about three months it’ll be
interesting to see where we will be at that time a lot of epidemiologists are
saying that the peak of this epidemic may be reached in about three months
time a side note here on Johnson & Johnson they have a very powerful HIV
medication which interestingly as you may know HIV is an RNA and virus as well
and they’re wanting to see whether or not the HIV medication is going to be
effective against the corona virus and that medication is Prescott
so that’ll be interesting to see how that works now a common question that
gets asked is exactly how does this virus kill somebody why is it that
people succumb to the virus and what mechanism and in most of the cases it’s
respiratory failure and something called a RDS so in the next video I’m going to
talk about a RDS and exactly how is it that we treat it what do we do for it
and why is it that we need to have updated ICU is to deal with a RDS and
what’s been the recent evidence in the last couple of years for treating a RDS
and how can we improve survival for some of these viruses that’s going to be in
the next video thanks for joining us and stay tuned for further updates

About the author

Comments

  1. No matter where you live.. in the next few days, they'll have 2 or more people confirmed with corona..if it hasn't happened already

  2. Bringing those people back to california is going to fucking spread like WILDFIRE. There's a lot of homelessness here so if you could just imagine..
    I heard around twitter saying this is man-made and was tested through an AI, and then estimated about 62 million people will die from the virus. There are labs in Wuhan only 20 mi. away from the meat markets and it's been allegedly said that the virus was placed outside of the labs and then blamed on the meat markets. You can choose what to believe but I have a feeling this is biological warfare and there's a lot no one is wanting to say. I believe California might be next…..

  3. In an insightful Interview in French, Professor Didier Raoult, biological and microbiological researcher who discovered more than 60 new virus since 1975 and won numerous prices (notably for his work on pathogene diseases), shared in an interview about the new coronavirus:

    "You know, we live in a crazy world, 5 Chinese people die from a new (out of many) Coronavirus and suddenly it's a world's threat, an epidemic, a panic. A bus go out the road in Peru and we hear cars kill more and more. Sensational and fear always sell more for Media."

    For example, I hear about Ebola since 1976 every 5-10 years but recently (and according to my TV) it's becoming more and more dangerous.. Really? The virus is still the same. So they ask me every time: "Is there ever gonna be Ebola in France?" Never. Climate play an important role.

    Every year Corona viruses (there are about 5-6 types of them) kill about 600 people in France, mostly during winter (November-March). Nobody talk about that.

    Just before this interview I was discussing the respiratory virus Saint Cichlid, which kills in France about 2000 people every year. Nobody talk about that neither.

    A couple years ago this virus would have been considered normal flu. But since China have been making huge steps lately in sequencing DNA and NRA they are discovering lot of new virus forms lately. Making it THE big thing is always good for those who discovered it…

    At the question should we be worry? Prof Raoult answered: "no more than usual of just getting a flu in winter."

  4. What they have done to animals like dog's and cat returned to them now they have feel how they have treated to animals. Same happened in Brazil they have burnt Amazon and it returned as a flood. No body can defeat tha nature. Nature is the god. Nature don't want people. But people want nature. Stop killing animals china will be okay

  5. I hope the virus mutates to not kill animals to hell with the humans we plundered and drove whole species to extinction so good riddance if the human species come to an end .I mostly blame humans cause they always killing one another for their imaginary gods etc etc .

  6. Sorry but if you’re going to use figures provided by the Chinese Communist Party, you should make it clear that you’re only working with official numbers, and that reliable estimates are FAR higher.

  7. I have never heard in my life of 50 million people being quarantined. Is it possible China's not telling us something and is it possible to China let this virus go to contain Hong Kong's issues?

  8. to many people in one small place breeds disease
    2 class 4 bio labs in the area, 1 at 4k from WuHan and one 20k from WuHan
    much trash, pollution and sickness already makes a fertile breeding ground
    particles at 20 micron means that you need a mask capable of stopping particles at 20 micron

  9. Thank you so much for this I'm currently in China and with all the false information being thrown around its good to have videos from a channel I trust

  10. I think we may face a situation in China where the death rate is accidentally exaggerated.

    People with severe symptoms may tend to present themselves to hospitals and will be counted. Many with mild symptoms may not bother and may be under-reported.

    We probably don't have enough information to know what the death rate will end up being, just yet. But I doubt it'll be over 1%.

    Even so, that's a lot of potential deaths.

    If the Chinese health authorities are correct, and transmission can occur from asymptomatic patients, it's going to be a lot harder to contain the spread of nCOV than it was to stop SARS or MERS. A lot harder. This bears close monitoring.

  11. Germany reports one case transmitted by a person traveling asymptomatic from Shanghai to Germany, spreading the virus to a colleague in Germany and traveling back to Shanghai without apparently knowing she was infected. Her parents had been to Wuhan but she had not. She apparently contracted it from them.

  12. You said there was no evidence of a human to human transfer of the virus outside of China so far… That is not true. Early in the morning today EST it was announced that in Germany a Chinese woman infected her German colleague when she had no symptoms. While I'm writing this your video is 8 or 9 hours old and it is now 10:54 PM EST. Maybe you missed the news that stated that?

  13. There was a man in Germany contracted the virus from a co worker,I believe, and that Co worker WAS asymptomatic. So yes, asymptomatic can spread it

  14. STOP all citizens from China from leaving China!!! CLOSE THE BORDERS!!!! WHY TRUMP NOT PUT A TRAVEL BAN ON CHINA????? $$$$.

  15. I know i may sound rude. But lets close all transport services or connection with china. Cuz thats the most infected. No offence

  16. THE NUMBERS ARE OFF. A CHINESE NURSE CLAIMED ON VIDEO THAT 90,000 ARE ALREADY DEAD. ALL TRAVEL ALL OVER THE WORLD SHOULD BE STOPPED.

  17. China can try nebulization with hypertonic saline(>0.9%),its not anti viral per se but it may reduce promotion of virus within respiratory tract and lungs.WHO and CDC debunked some Chinese scientist who advised gargling saline water to protect from it id say it can work deep enough in respiratory tract and lungs through nebulization..we used it usually to loosen secretions in patients with really thick ones and it may help reducing viral growth..CDC should reconsider its use since theres no anti viral available yet…hypertonic saline are known to inhibit or reduce organism growth whether bacterial or viral..its just a simple respiratory therapy to those already at the hospitals,heck we give salbutamol nebs endlessly that have far more adverse effects.Also hospitals must be negative pressure room equipt,without that is just a breeding ground for the virus.

  18. Whilst of course,it is a concerning virus, I really don't think it is one that will become a pandemic, nor will the mortality rate be that high. It shares about a 70% similarity with SARS. And again, although Sars was concerning at the time, it quickly plateaued and fizzled out.

    This strain is much less lethal than SARS, with around a 3-4% mortality rate, in the more elderly, or immune compromised. The rnaught (rate of transmission from person to person) is not yet fully known, but is estimated at around 1.4. Again, really quite low.

    Corona viruses are basically more severe colds, attacking the respiratory system much deeper, but hardly the ingredient for a pandemic.

    I really think people are a little TOO scared of this virus. Parts of China have been closed, people not working, no access to shops. Firstly, it won't stop the transmission due to it already being spread outside China…the opportunity to contain it has passed. Secondly, it is hardly the Spanish Flu, or smallpox. These were very deadly and spread like wildfire. The overwhelming percentage of people with Coronavirus would simply be ill for a few days and then recover.

    Of course, we have to be vigilant. But the talks of disease X and pandemics is frankly ludicrous. We need to be much more scared of novel H1N1 strains, not this.

    And yes, we can talk of mutation, but frankly it is unlikely. And even if it did mutate, it would not make it a grim reaper virus. People comparing this and Spanish Flu really need to do their research.

  19. 4428 reported infected, not infected . No one knows how many are infected. The projections of death toll are based on a faulty premise.

  20. So once the virus reaches Mexico, how long will it be until infected undocumented immigrants start crossing the border into the USA, without us having any ability to screen them for symptoms or track their movements inside the USA?

  21. When this virus hapidly mutates and gets really contagious and becomes highly lethal I will practically not leave the house

  22. Im very worried the outbreak may already in my country indonesia. We dont have advance tech, prof Human Resources or even safety protocol like other country and even our gov dont take this seriously. And stated its not dangerous

  23. Death on the wind. First time in my life I felt death in the world. Similar feeling only happens when a relative dies .. the last time I see them. I gotta wonder.

  24. China doesn't want US health officials to come help with containing the epidemic?? China has too much secrets, they don't want other countries to know what the hell they're doing. As usual China wants to keep all these in secrecy, then it burst on them…now they have no choice, its now spilled all over the globe but they still need to just admit tp half truth. Secrecy is control..they need everything top secret.

  25. 6pm Australian Eastern Standard Time. Report 4 Hours old claims Chinese Officials have put it at 5,974. And total deaths at 132. This is getting scary.

  26. Just because you can't verify the claim that the virus can be transmitted from someone that's asymptomatic doesn't mean that we shouldn't exercise a heightened level of caution based on that claim. Ignoring it because we can't prove it to our government is only inviting a much worse result and more deaths.

  27. There are reported case in China where the patient doesn't show any symptoms but his lungs are obviously infected under CT scanning(they were admitted to the hospital only because their relatives/co-workers are infected). Of course these patients can transmit it to others as their lungs are full of the virus. This is scary AF.

  28. Fry slightly morning a leaves mix with eggs, onions, ginger, garlic. Marinade your chicken with turmeric or cinnamon powder, and steam it with stone Korean pot. Econ Zone.

  29. I've heard that the virus can live on surfaces for 28 days. So what about packages or products imported or mailed from China? If someone wraps your package and coughs on it, can you get it?

  30. What most doctors may not be researching in med school is vaccine safety. There are hundreds of research studies from the US National Library of Medicine regarding the dangers of vaccines. Visit our source and reference page to check out these studies. Read through these studies and then ask yourself again, “are vaccines safe“?
    Even though doctors are hesitant to report dangers of vaccines, they still report thousands of serious vaccine reactions each year (CDC is source) including hundreds of deaths and permanent disabilities.
    As stated above, many go unreported and unrecognized, and even if reported, the pharmaceutical companies are never held responsible.

  31. Exotic Animal have entered the chat
    Bat soup have entered the Chat
    Corona have entered the chat
    Chinese new year have entered the chat
    Chinese have left the chat
    Canada Have entered the chat
    USA have entered the chat
    Asia have entered the chat
    Dank memers have entered the chat
    Chinese have been banned from the group

  32. Germany: The asymptomatic chinese women in Germany infected THREE people, or at least ONE and this one infected his collegues at work. He hat cold symptoms on weekend but came back to work on monday 🙁 Today the enterprise was closes, for me much too late. He has also kids in the kindergarden, where everybody is "watched" now, whatever this may mean. Anyway, I didnt bring my children to kindergarden since last friday, when I called today they told me, half of the class is at home with fever….so dont worry, everything is at its best.

  33. Are doctors reading here? Does anyone of them got an information by the government how to handle patients or how to avoid a epidemic situation? I am a doctor in Germany and I didnt get anything until now. I myself try to inform my patients and most of them are just laughing and live on like stupid lambs. Traffic, schools, events….all goes on. Maybe this is a kind of modern evolution, the stupid ones will die first. All the informations are available, just search yourself and pretend yourself. I can understand that the government doesnt want to panic the people but this will cost many lives at the end for unneccessary reasons. Why not being careful for just a few days and try to avoid the epidemy? For economic reasons? Look at China, their economy is crashed anyway now.

  34. Also an update, suspected Coronavirus case in Poland popped up few hours ago.
    It's not confirmed yet however, stay tuned for that

  35. Ok let’s remember that Smog, the fact that roughly half of Asian men smoke, extremely low sanitation levels, people buy foods daily and not in bulk so they aren’t prepared, large use of public transportation, biggest migration on earth within country.(also world) and America has privatized healthcare which might curve the amount of crowding.

    Just other factors to remember. Fighting lung infections are hard enough. Throw several HUGE things like this and you can see a bit more. Not saying that the odds in America are better. There’s just more at play here.

  36. China has got the virus but doesn’t know how to cure .. so it spreads around the World in hope the others to find the cure for its virus

  37. It's like lots of people who had travel history to Wuhan are tested positive across the globe.
    That's a big deal! That only means that lots really are infected in Wuhan and it's highly contagious.

    It's better for the world to panic now than regret and try to contain it later.

  38. Wjat aboit in bavaria . women met with german business man after a single conversation he was infected amd then infected 3 people in his office THE SAME DAY .. Thats person to person bro .

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *